Lessons from 22 Bahman

Ahmadinejad won the election by a highly suspect margin, and without the predicted run-off election, but since June 12 he has been on the losing side of Iranian politics. With each and every national holiday, the Green Opposition Movement has co-opted the celebrations and been spotlighted by international press throughout the Ashura, Students’ Day (13 Aban) and Qods day celebrations. The Greens had all the momentum. Expectations were high for 22 Bahman, the 31st anniversary celebration of the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

But this one was different. Ahmadinejad started the week by arrested up to 30 dissidents, putting a serious damper on the mood of the Green Movement. HE also slowed the internet to a crawl, blocked Gmail, and shut down the SMS (text messaging) network. He then put a massive fence around Azadi Square, bussed in supporters from all over the country, and allowed foreign press to see only what he wanted them to see: a defiant speech given by a powerful man who had control over his country.

But was this an accurate depiction of reality on the ground in Iran? I monitored the events of 22 Bahman live, connected up to over 50 sources of information, and working with some of the best bloggers on the subject. When something happened, we were among the first to know. With my thumb firmly pressed to the pulse of the Green Movement, I felt the disappointment myself. It seemed that some very brave men and women gathered, marched, protested, and were beaten, gassed, and shot at for their efforts. But at every turn, Ahmadinejad had outpaced them. Clearly, the tactic of using highly anticipated holidays to protest had turned on the Green Movement. This time, Ahmadinejad was ready. There was no open revolution, no cracks in the armor of a repressive regime. This one was different.

This sense of defeat was hedged by the knowledge that the day had NOT been a victory for the Islamic Republic of Iran. In fact, it was perhaps the strongest sign that the ideals of the revolution were dead. A thousand protesters had shown up on the streets, and the government had to resort to fascist tactics to keep the will of the people from ruling the day. The Green Movement, facing daunting odds and perils, had shown up: AGAIN! How could this be a victory for the Iranian government?

It wasn’t. And the rest of the world has rarely been so focused on Iran. Just yesterday, NAtional Public Radio focused over an hour of coverage on the Iran issue. First, ALL THINGS CONSIDERED  interviewed Mohammed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who spoke about the need for continued diplomacy, rather than isolation, with Iran. Then On Point Radio interviewed several people after Hillary Clinton described Iran as a “military dictatorship” rather than a republic. Iason Athanasiadis, a journalist who had been detained at one point by Iran, noted that National Security Advisor Jim Jones had even said that these sanctions could even threaten the regime itself. Karim Sadjadpour, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, spoke about the prominence of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and their influence in the region, and the fact that this is a sign of the increasing repression and hostility of the government of Iran. On CNN, Christine Amanpour interviewed Gary Sick, former adviser to Carter and Reagan on Iranian issues, who spoke about the need to supply the Green Movement with technology to communicate freely and overcome government repression (see the video here). The Wall Street Journal even went as far as to say that we are watching the demise of the Islamic Revolution itself. The point: the press in this country, and the politicians, are finally taking interest in Iran AND the Green Movement. As diplomacy fails, more and more Americans are asking how to best help the opposition movement.

This is the first lesson from 22 Bahman; Even when protests don’t succeed in the way that pro-Green activists would like, the world is still watching the Iranian People. Despite the best efforts of the Iranian government, the voices of dissent are being heard.

Clearly, however, the Green Opposition has to question whether the tactic of protesting on holidays is effective. The government was ready this time, and they will likely be ready for protests during the Persian New Year next month. It is unlikely those events will turn out much different than this past one.

On the other hand, there have been many talks of destabilizing the economy of Iran in an attempt to promote regime change. There is some evidence that this tactic is already being used in an attempt to undermine the banking system of Iran. Sit-ins, labor strikes, and bank runs have all been discussed as possible tactics. What Ahmadinejad did on 22 Bahman had to be extremely expensive, and some voices of opposition have suggested that continuing the tactic of co-opting national holidays will make security expenses high, adding additional stress to an already fragile economic system.

Whether the strategy continues to rely on protests during holidays, or it shifts to economics, protests on other days, or something not seen yet, there are many unknowns for the Green Movement in Iran. However, if 22 Bahman taught us something, it taught us that the opposition to Ahmadinejad, and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei himself, will not go away; the government isn’t going to go down without a fight; and the world is no longer content with sitting on the sidelines.

Whether there is a protest on that day or not, the Persian New Year will be a critical one for the future of Iran.