Splitting Atoms and Shattering Governments

When a Nuclear Weapons Program and a Revolution Collide

The week ahead is going to be pivotal for Iran. The anniversary of the Islamic Revolution is on February 11 (22 Bahman), and large crowds of protesters are expected to take to the streets in major cities in Iran. At the same time, negotiations between the United Nations, the United States, and Iran about nuclear proliferation have hit several new obstacles. Just this past week, Iran launched a rocket into space that is capable of carrying nuclear arms. Also, Monday Iran announced that it will further enrich uranium, a step which many experts agree would signify the development of nuclear weapons. All this is happening while the U.S. Senate passed sanctions against Iran’s oil imports (despite being oil rich, Iran has few oil refineries), a move that went against President Obama’s wishes. The opposition movement has promised massive protests, and Iranian government has promised an impressive commemoration (perhaps even the testing of new nuclear technology), and by the end of the week, there might be outright revolution in Iran.

Iran has been preparing for the week ahead. Protest routes have been posted, fireproof dumpsters have been installed in the streets, and the commander of the Revolutionary Guard stated, “We will not allow the Green Wave show itself.”

Leading up to the celebration, the Iranian police have been arresting scores of protesters and dissidents. Prior to this protesters caught on the street, journalists, and the most vocal activists had been targeted for arrest. However, this new crackdown is even more disconcerting because it has picked up many mid-level, less public faces of the Green Movement. The leadership of the opposition is extremely fluid; most of the “leaders” are small group leaders connected by an intricate network of face-to-face communication, pamphlets, and internet activity. The government is reaching deep within this movement, signifying how sophisticated their intelligence networks are and how desperate they’ve become.

As I mentioned above, however, the leadup to 22 Bahman is not an isolated event, as the whole world is watching Iran for a different reason: nuclear weapons. Many Americans believe, as Obama once did, that Iranian-American relations are “100 per cent about the nuclear and external policy and zero per cent about Iran’s internal issues.” Since then, however, that balance is now about 70/30. Similarly, many within the Iranian opposition believe that the Green Movement is 100 per cent about internal policy and 0 per cent about nukes. However, we’re rapidly approaching the tipping point on many issues at once. Iranian banks are facing a crisis, Ahmadinejad has announced that he is further enriching uranium, congress has passed sanctions, Israel has spoken out even more harshly against Iran, Russia says it is worried over recent Iranian missile launches, and the people of Iran are taking to the streets en masse in 48 hours. How can anyone ignore any of these events?

The world needs to start treating these problems as one and the same. First of all, a nuclear Iran IS NOT ACCEPTABLE under the current regime, if ever. Nuclear proliferation is a serious threat, Israel will not allow it, Hamas and Hezbollah would be allowed to operate under a shield of mutually assured destruction, and the Iranian regime will be strengthened by government insiders (many of whom are wavering in their support of the regime) who would not want instability and nuclear weapons at the same time. However, all efforts to stop the nuclear program have failed. The whole world would benefit greatly from a new regime in Iran, and these events are coming to a head at the same time that regime change is a possibility, even if it is a remote one.

As I’ve stated before, direct Western influence in the internal affairs of Iran would be counterproductive to the prospects of peace and stability in the region. However, as I’ve also stated before, President Obama has many options in Iran, including sophisticated sanctions praised by the intelligence community (as opposed to the ones passed by the Senate) and cyber-assistance. the Iranian government is proving that it is capable of clamping down on communication, and the United States has the ability to help the Green Movement protest and coordinate.

Stay tuned: I will be Live Blogging 22 Bahman protests from Wednesday night into Thursday, and I will have at least one post up before then!