The situation in Iran is very hard to decipher right now. Since the June 12, 2009, elections, it has become increasingly hard to get reliable information out of the country. In recent months, the crackdown on the Green Movement and the deliberate slowdown of the internet by the Iranian government has made the situation even worse. Also, members of the Green Movement have been highly secretive about their intentions during the upcoming new-year celebration, Nowruz.
Chaharshanbeh Suri, a festival marking the beginning of the new year celebrations, starts on Tuesday, March 16. It is often referred to as the “Fire Festival,” or “Feast of Fire,” because of the tradition of lighting fires in backyards of homes. This year, there has been significant speculation that there might be major protest events planned for Nowruz, perhaps focused on Chaharshanbeh Suri. However, there has also been some pushback by some in the opposition movement, and the blogosphere abroad, as some think it is a dangerous idea, not conducive to a protest event, and it is destined to failure.
Still, there is a steady, though unconfirmable, buzz surrounding Nowruz. Rumors of protests on March 10th, 16th, and 25th have been persistent. Despite suggestions that these rumors are red herrings, there are new signs that the government is taking the possibility of these events very seriously. State Security Force officials have spoken out against protests planned for Nowruz. The Tehran Prosecutor and the Commander of Iran’s Law Enforcement Forces have warned that protesters will be dealt with harshly if they take to the streets. Dissected News has received unconfirmed reports of new road blocks and check points within Tehran and Shiraz. If the government is taking these events this seriously, the goal of keeping security forces on their feet has already been achieved.
unconfirmed Revolutionary Guard checkpoints in Tehran
There have also been many reports of economic slowdowns, worker strikes, and sit-ins planned for the Persian New Year. While there is some evidence of this, it needs to be pointed out that this occurs every year. Similarly to the period of time between Christmas and New Years in the West, many families take vacations and many businesses operate with holiday hours. These reports are probably false-positives.
Mir Hossein Mousavi, the runner-up to Ahmadinejad in the failed June election, has not asked for mass protests during Nowruz, nor have other public figures to this date.
No one knows what the next step for the Green Movement is, but we will be patiently waiting and watching for the new year in Iran.
Posted in Foreign Policy, Iran, Middle East
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