Analysis: Reformist Leaders Withdraw Marching Permits

UPDATE: 14:55 GMT – The Official Translation of the Statement by Mousavi/Karroubi can be found here:

This is my quick analysis of news breaking on Enduring America:

1230 GMT: New Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. As we still await the final word from the Ministry of Interior on requests for permits to march on 12 June, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have issued another statement, via both Karrroubi’s Saham News and Mousavi’s Kalemeh. In view of the threat to people’s safety, they are withdrawing their request to march; however, they note the turnout on 25 Khordaad (15 June) last year, which was also in an “undeclared” protest. They continue, ”In the great nation of Iran, it is not possible to block people on the way they have chosen and their creative role in making this path will appear….It is simplistic to think you can suppress the opposition with lies, threats, and humiliation.”

For those of you who were not aware, Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, the two reformists who ran against Ahmadinejad last June, had asked for permits for marches to commemorate the anniversary of the elections that effectively launched the Green Movement.

It appears that Mousavi and Karroubi have sited the safety of the protesters, in light of the brutal retaliation they have faced over the past year, as the main reason for cancelling the official demonstrations on Saturday.

There were two angles of speculation in recent days: That the permits would be denied (or the requests never responded to in time), or that they would be accepted. Both would have consequences. The speculation was that if the permits were accepted, they would be silent marches, well attended, and free from much of the violence that has marked most protests since June 12 of last year. The other possibility was far more unclear. If the permits were denied, by showing up at the rallies Mousavi and Karroubi would, possibly, be accused of leading a revolution. If they did not show, they may have been accused of abandoning the protesters. Violence would certainly ensue.  Attendance would be uncertain.  The Islamic Republic of Iran would look bad, but they might once again be in control of the streets of Iran.

Either option had the potential to be a boon for the Green Movement. Either possibility carried the omen of possible disaster.

One way to look at this move by Moussavi and Karoubi is that they did the only thing they could. Neither leader can risk being arrested and having no legitimate and legal means to pursue reform. Also, as was alluded to in the official statement, if large numbers of protesters show up for a rally that has been called off, it will appear as though the Green Movement is larger than its public leadership (this is true, anyway). If few numbers show up, then the Green Movement will still be able to say that the absence of large numbers was due to the backing off of the leaders of the movement.

I have avoided making predictions about what will happen in the next few days for several reasons. First of all, I am not in Iran, and have no right to tell the Iranian protesters to risk their lives. Secondly, false hopes and naive, oversimplified statements by the media have only hurt the Green Movement, as I spoke of in my previous article. I don’t know how large the protests will be on 22 Khordad, June 12, Saturday. I don’t know who will show up, I don’t know how much violence there will be, and I don’t know what the regime has planned to keep the voices of dissent silent.

But I do know that on Saturday the voices of dissent will not be silent. And I know that neither the government, nor bad media analysis, nor lack of a permit will stop democracy from rising out of oppression in Iran.