Iran Live-blog: Qods Day, A Gathering Storm?

As the flood of news slows to a trickle, and now a drip, let me give an initial analysis.

Pro-government crowds in Iran were extremely low, but the news of the day was arguably the vicious nature of the attacks of government supporters against Mehdi Karroubi’s home and the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz.  Clearly, the Iranian regime is scared of dissent, and running out of friends.

Note: Earlier there was an unconfirmed report of Bassij forces gathering around Mousavi’s home. Those reports remain unconfirmed, and are therefore probably not reliable at this point.

For background, see my previous entry on Qods Day. Check back, as this is a developing story:

For other great liveblogs covering this story, see Enduring America and Josh Shahryar.

Update – 15:40 GMT:

A Facebook site loyal to Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a description of the bloody seige inside the Qoba mosque inside the city of Shiraz.  The mosque was invaded by over 150 plain-clothed thugs, but they were eventually forced out.  Multiple injuries were reported (see pictures below)

Update – 15:29 GMT:

There is an unconfirmed report, via a blogger, that Mousavi’s house is in the process of being surrounded by Bassij (map)

Update – 15:22 GMT:

A source inside Iran (Iran Students Committee) sent me the following email less than an hour ago.

The lack of the participation of the public in the state-run ‘Quds Day’ Marches once again proved that the Iranian regime does not have a popular base among the Iranian people. Despite the fact that widespread advertising was put into this event by the regime, the lack of the participation of the people has brought shame on the regime. Azadi Square was so empty that it was not closed down to cars as it usually is on ‘Quds Day’. Only a few people who were organized by Bassij bases were seen walking on the sidewalks.

One year ago on Quds Day, millions of people came out on the streets to protest to the government; protests that were brutally suppressed with batons, teargas and other things. The Iranian regime has tried in the past year and a half to suffocate the smallest protests and to cause an atmosphere of fear to prevent people from leaving their homes for protests. In this way they want to show that dissident groups are very few in numbers. But the people once again proved on ‘Quds Day’ this year which group they actually belong to and what their numbers truly are.

So far, our correspondents have been unable to get an accurate reading of the size of the pro-government crowd.  Euronews is reporting that there were only “thousands” of government supporters. Their video of the day (source unknown) only shows a small portions of the crowd.  All foreign news sources operating in Iran are under the close scrutiny of the regime, and some of their video is provided to them from state-run media outlets.

As if anticipating the embarrassment for such a small crowd, several state-run media organizations have started to accuse the western press of propaganda for reporting the small size of the crowd.  Tabnak, Mehr News, and Fars News are all running similar stories.

Also, it appears that Karroubi’s news outlet, Saham News, is down and has been replaced by a placeholder, apparently the result of a cyber attack.

Update – 13:15 GMT:

According to a Facebook page loyal to Mousavi:

According to SahamNews moments ago Seyyed Yasser Khomeini, grandson of late Ayatollah Khomeini (founder of Islamic Republic), visited Mehdi Karroubi after the siege on Karroubi’s residence was broken. Seyyed Yaser Khomeini in this meeting after touring the building and seeing the extent of the damages expressed his deep concerns over these brutal actions by Basij and plain-clothes thugs. The grandson of Imam Khomeini who visited Mehdi Karroubi to comfort him strongly condemned these inhuman and barbaric behaviors.

Update – 13:09 GMT:

According to Rahe Sabz, Ayatollah Dastegheyb’s Ghoba Mosque in Shiraz has been attacked by several hundred plain-clothed Basij.  The forces have entered the mosque, disrupted prayer, and clashes are ongoing inside.  According to my colleague Josh Shahryar, the mosque door had been sealed by the government after students had vocalized plans for meeting there.  Ayatollah Ghoba is a staunch supporter of the opposition to the Islamic Republic and president Ahmadinejad.

Update – 01:05 GMT:

The security situation in Tehran is extremely tight. There are reports of walls of security personnel around the major squares and avenues in Tehran.  There are also reports of security personnel intersecting trains and buses, looking for anyone wearing Green.

A much more reliable video of the inside of Mehdi Karroubi’s house can be viewed here.  One can readily see burn marks and bullet holes, as well as other damage.  According to Saham News, a man and his wife were beaten near the scene when his wife took off her hijab and used a cell phone.  The report then claims that the couple was detained by security forces.

There is also this video, which allegedly shows last night’s attack on Karroubi’s house, though it has not yet been verified.

The Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom Seminary School, Karroubi’s own party, and Mir Hossein Mousavi, all condemned the attacks on Karroubi. Apparently, Mousavi was able to reach Karroubi by phone (perhaps a cell phone, as the land lines have been cut) with a pledge to join him inside the house.

Update – 07:44 GMT:

There are multiple new reports that motorcycles have joined the blockade of Mehdi Karroubi’s house.  There are some reports that, once again, Bassij forces are attempting to break into Karroubi’s home.

Many Iranian state-run TV channels are showing the gathering pro-government protests.

Update – 07:39 GMT:

According to Press TV, and other sources, pro-government protesters have started to gather in central locations in Tehran.  Thus far, there is no notable Green Movement presence.

Update – 07:22 GMT:

According to the Green Movement website Rahe Sabz, the internet has been slowed in Iran.  Facebook, Gmail, and other social networking sites are operating very slowly. This is a tactic used by the Islamic Republic in previous protests, as the complex network of information, much of which relies on proxy networks, becomes almost inoperable if the internet is slowed.

Also, pictures taken yesterday of heavy police presence in Tehran have emerged. Especially interesting is the presence of what appears to be female police officers to process female protesters.

Male and Female Police ready for Qods

Update: 07:06 GMT:

(Today is Qods Day, a national holiday in Iran since the Islamic Revolution protesting against the Israeli occupation of Palestine and Jerusalem, as well as other national issues.  Tensions surrounding potential anti-government protests are building, but so too are the tensions surrounding the major side-plot of today’s events.

For the last five days, the home of Mehdi Karroubi, a leading reformer and former presidential candidate, has been surrounded in a total blockade by Bassiji forces, plain-clothed militia unofficially sanctioned by the Iranian government. The Bassij have been the favored tool of Ahmadinejad’s crackdown against his political opposition since last 2009′s failed elections.

There have been some stunning developments.  According to Radio Farda, who gave an interview to Karroubi’s son before the phone lines were cut (longer summary here), and other sources in Iran, last night the crowd around Karroubi’s apartment complex has become violent.  Shots were fired into the home, and warning shots were fired back.  Some Bassij even tried to force Karroubi into the open by lighting the home on fire, but they were beaten back.  Sources also state that there have been several serious injuries, including multiple Bassij and the head of Karroubi’s security, who was taken to the hospital and may still be in a coma.

After the attacks, Mehdi Karroubi gave an interview (via phone) to RasaTV.  According to one source:

Following these events Mehdi Karroubi in an interview with Rasa TV once again announced that he is ready to pay any price and will stand in this path till the end.

Karroubi also once again stressed on attending the Qods Day demonstrations.

Mehdi Karroubi in this phone interview said: “Following the elections many events happened in the country and everyone witnessed the consequences. We also expressed our positions clearly and caringly. But my clear and frank positions regarding country’s issues has not gone well with these guys and [therefore] they plan these events and attacks.”

READ THE LONGER SUMMARY HERE

New reports just in (8 AM, Friday, local time) report that Basijis are once again gathering around Karroubi’s home. Apparently, electrical and phone lines have also been cut. According to Enduring America:

Student Supporters of Karroubi and Mousavi have issued a statement calling for a demonstration of support on Saturday at around 7:30 p.m. local time in front of Karroubi’s residence.

This alleged video has surfaced, showing damage to the Karroubi home after the attacks, though the audio seems to be added on in editing.

Please check back, as this is a developing story.