Student Day, 2009, was an impressive, emotional sight. After months of an increasingly violent crackdown of dissidents, Iranian students woke up to find that their universities had been surrounded by security forces and plain clothed basiji who were ready for a fight. Despite all of this, thousands of students took to the streets in an impressive should of defiance.
Just a few weeks later I attempted my first liveblog on Ashura. The memories from that day were both exhilarating and horrifying. The world tuned in as large-scale, wide-spread protests erupted all over Iran, many of them in the most violent way possible. As the crowds surged the Iranian security forces retaliated, beating and arresting protesters. Then something amazing happened:
The protesters fought back.
Over the next few hours, more than 10 were killed, including the nephew of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the (supposed) runner-up in June 2009′s failed elections. Basij motorcycles were set on fire. A police station was burned to the ground. At the end of the day, Iranian security forces looked as though they had retreated. Everyone watching was stunned. The Green Movement had actually WON!
It goes without saying that the prevailing thought at the time was that the collapse of the political system in Iran may have been imminent. If that were the case, the most likely date of the demise of the Islamic Republic of Iran was also clear: 22 Bahman, February 11th, the celebrated anniversary of the overthrow of the monarchy in 1979.
The dawn brought hope but the sunset brought disaster. The Iranian regime had bused in tens of thousands of supporters from all regions of Iran (many of them paid to be there). Security forces anticipated protest routes and blocked them. Former president Khatami and opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi were attacked on the way to lead rallies. The opposition scattered, the regime’s defenders gathered, and the security forces separated Ahmadinejad and the foreign media from the dissipating sea of green.
A lot of analysts were asking themselves what happened. To the casual observer, the Green Movement crumbled. However, to those who were paying attention, thousands tried to rally but were blocked. Many blamed the hype around 22 Bahman, that it tipped off security forces to the plans of the dissidents, gave the IRI too much time to prepare, and set the bar too high for the Green Movement. Certainly, there is a lot of truth in many of these explanations.
Recently, however, a new possibility has occurred to me. What if Ashura 2009 was really a great defeat for the Green Movement? What if the protest was so bloody that it turned off moderates, either out of disgust, or more likely out of fear?
It’s been a bloody year and a half in Iran. I will never stop being inspired and deeply saddened by the events that have transpired there. But recent events have shown, once again, that there are many in Iran who desire change, freedom, and a true democracy in Iran. There are many who still fight, who are willing to be beaten, or arrested, or who are willing to starve themselves, just to achieve a free Iran.
And as long as the Green Movement fights, I’ll keep writing about it.
Posted in Featured, Foreign Policy, Iran, Middle East
One Million Voices for Iran