Iran Liveblog: February 17, 2011 (28 Bahman)

1556 GMT -

I’m still liveblogging for Enduring America, but here is a snap analysis of an important piece of news, that Mousavi has called for protest rallies on Sunday:

Let’s try to connect some very complicated dots. Yesterday Enduring America described how the Assembly of Experts, headed by Rafsanjani, praised recent efforts by the regime and denounced Monday’s protests. This was seen as a betrayal by many in the opposition camp. Worse yet was a statement reportedly from Mousavi which seemed to reverse direction, a weakening of his position at a time of revival for the opposition movement. This morning, we listed some interesting analysis (below) that suggested that the statement by Mousavi may have been faked or manipulated.

As I wrote this morning for Enduring America:

Deception? A trusted source has published a very interesting article casting doubt on the legitimacy of Mousavi’s most recent statement, released yesterday:

“Three of Mousavi’s closest allies have cast doubt on the statement that was released yesterday. It is said that in response to the regime’s brutal accusations, and in Mousavi’s absence, this statement was written by one of his aids and posted under his name on his website.

“Mousavi’s daughters have openly expressed their concern for him and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, and have told the website JARAS that they have not been in any contact with their parents and are deeply worried for their health. And in a situation where his senior advisor has also stressed that he has had no communication with him, how did this statement get out?”

The article goes on to question the linguistic choices (Mousavi does not usually use words like “America and their zionist allies”), political choices (Mousavi has not previous described the aims of the reformists as the completion of Khomeini’s vision) and Mousavi’s condemnation of international support for the movement, which seems contradictory to his acknowledgement of the international community’s scorn for the tactics of the regime. (See yesterday’s liveblog for the statement)

I also pointed out how all of the language coming out of regime officials today mirrored, in some way, the Mousavi message.

This evidence seemed to leave two possible conclusions: either Mousavi was backing down, or his statement was a fake. Earlier, Ayatollah Larijani dismissed calls to execute or arrest Mousavi and Karroubi. That seemed incongrious, especially after the government officials were also throwing around ultimatums to former President Khatami as well as Mousavi and Karroubi.  This had more than a few worried that Mousavi must have made a backroom deal with the regime.

These newest updates confirm that this is most likely not the case. Mousavi may be stepping up to the plate. Let’s wait and see if this develops further.