Revolution Day – 02/11/2011

Mubarak is gone. Egypt’s president is the next dictator to fall in a wave of popular uprising that started in Tunisia, where a young street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, had his cart stolen by police. After years of bad leadership, and facing the terrible economic outlook that is the reality in so many places in the Middle East, Mohamed lit himself on fire. That fire has spread, toppled two governments, and embers are threatening to spark more revolution. Today, large celebrations were held in Gaza. There are reports of protests in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Turkey.  On Monday, opposition leaders in Iran have called for a large-scale march in solidarity with the Egyptian people.

February 11th, the observed anniversary of the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the anniversary of the day that Nelson Mandela was released from prison in South Africa, will now be known as the day that David slew the 21st century Goliath in Egypt. The whole world is asking the same question: who will be next?

Many in Iran would like to answer that question on Monday. Today, the Iranian regime hosted their annual 22 Bahman (today’s date in the Persian calendar) rally to celebrate the anniversary of the toppling of the U.S. backed Shah in 1979. Last year, the Green Movement planned counter-protests, but the protests were broken up before they were able to reach their rallying locations. Opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi and former reformist President Mohammad Khatami were both attacked on their way to give speeches. Many analysts have considered last year’s 22 Bahman protests a disaster, and from that day forward the Green Movement has struggled to maintain momentum. Though the discontent is still below the surface, for the last year Iran’s regime has been safe from the threat of immediate collapse. Finally, this week opposition leaders, encouraged by Egypt and Tunisia, called for their own day of protest.

There are major differences between Iran and Egypt, however. In Egypt, somewhere between 100-300 protesters died in the last month. In Iran, almost two years after the election, the regime has executed more than 100 since the beginning of the calendar year, an average of more than 1 execution every 8 hours. This doesn’t count the hundreds that have died on the streets, tens of thousands who have been detained, or even the hundreds of journalists and human rights activists who are in prison. CNN, or Al Jazeera, do not have a live video feed from Tehran. Human rights abuses are occurring there away from the 24 hour news cycle. The internet, as all forms of speech, have been heavily censored for years, not just shut off for a few hours or days.

The people of Iran have been beaten down, and they have been afraid to let their voices be heard without some degree of certainty that change is possible.

Now, they might have that certainty. It is hard to say how large the crowds of protesters will be on Monday, or what degree of resistance they will meet, or whether or not the reformist leaders will make their presence known. Mir Hossein Mousavi, the opposition leader who received the most votes in 2009′s disputed presidential election, has had his application for a rally denied. Mehdi Karroubi is currently under house arrest at his home in Tehran, and his phone lines have been cut. Karroubi is more likely to show up to a rally, perhaps, but right now it seems unlikely he’ll be able to leave his house.

There are now signs, however, that the main stream media will ignore Iran no longer. The official Facebook page for the event has more than 30,000 “likes” in just a few days (click “like” to help raise awareness for Iran). We have even established a Facebook site for Mehdi Karroubi, in the hopes that if it gets enough “likes” the media will also cover this issue (again, click “like” to help). The media is previewing Monday’s expected rally, and sources in the Green Movement have led many of us to believe that there will be a good crowd.

The world has stood in solidarity with Egypt for 18 days. Now, the world needs to stand in solidarity with the Iranian people, people who have been fighting, in silence, for two years. We need to be watching, and we need to make sure that the world is watching, because the Iranian regime is watching, and everything depends on it.

Stay tuned for many updates in the coming days.

Azadi (freedom),

James Miller