Below is a list of information on multiple air-to-ground missiles that are possible suspects, along with a collection of evidence supporting or detracting from the likelihood that each was used.
This information will be updated as more data is gathered (or as I have time to enter more data). So far possible candidates are Kh-29, Kh-25, and several others.
Air to Surface Missiles
Kh-25 Kegler: The Kh-25 (Also known as x-25 and AS-10 ‘Karen’) is a lightweight air-to-surface missile that could have been used by several different Assad aircraft. Note the many variants, several of which have different speeds – some are subsonic, others travel just above the speed of sound. One candidate is the Kh-25MP (more info here and here)
Stats (source – wikipedia)
Weight Kh-25ML :299 kg (659 lb)[1]
Kh-25MP :315 kg (694 lb)[2]Length Kh-25ML :370.5 cm (12 ft 2 in)[1]
Kh-25MP 1VP :425.5 cm (167.5 in)[2]
Kh-25MP 2VP :435.5 cm (171.5 in)[2]Diameter 27.5 cm (10.8 in)[1]
Warhead High explosive, shell-forming Warhead weight Kh-25MP :89.6 kg (198 lb),[2] Kh-25MR :140 kg (309 lb)[3]
Wingspan 75.5 cm (29.7 in)[1] Operational
rangeKh-25ML :11 km (5.9 nmi)[3]
Kh-25MP :up to 60 km (32 nmi)[3]
Kh-25MTP : 20 km (11 nmi)[3]Speed Kh-25ML :1,370–2,410 km/h (850–1,500 mph)[1]
Kh-25MP :1,080–1,620 km/h (670–1,000 mph)[2]Guidance
systemLaser, passive radar, TV, IIR, satnav, active radar depending on variant Launch
platformMiG-21,[4] MiG-23/27,[4] MiG-29,[4]Su-17/20/22,[4] Su-24,[4] Su-25,[4]Su-27[4]
Kh-25MP : MiG-23/27,[5] Su-17/22,[5] Su-24,[5] Su-25[5]
Videos of the KH-25 in action:
Note that the video clearly shows the missile rotating, as the smoke creates a kind of curling pattern. Also note that the smoke seems to stop some time before the missile hits. The videos are inconclusive, one theory is that this might be to ensure that the laser-targeting system is not obscured. One objection to the air-to-ground missile theory is that no smoke from the missile is visible in the video of the missile actually hitting.
This picture, taken from this video, shows a smoke trail over Aleppo University. Originally, the theory was that this could have been the vapor trail of the jet fighter. However, it is worth considering whether this is actually the curling smoke trail of an air-to-ground missile.
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